MARKOVIAN MARKETS

The market intelligence layer Polymarket doesn't have.

Prediction markets settled by chain consensus. No oracle. No human judgment. The chain settles it.
OPEN MARKETS
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awaiting resolution
TOTAL STAKED
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Kovs in play
SETTLED
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markets resolved
PROTOCOL FEE
2%
winners keep 98%
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POLYMARKET OVERLAP SPECIAL
Polymarket is pricing the same thesis. We already have a chain market for each.
These questions are live on Polymarket right now. Our chain tracks the same thesis through instruments the HMM can observe: price regimes, convergence, direction. No oracle needed. Resolves at target block.
POLYMARKET QUESTION
POLY PRICE
MARKOVIAN CHAIN MARKET
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30?
36%
Iran peace signal: will oil fall by June 30? — USO direction. Peace = risk premium collapses = oil DOWN.
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
5%
Iran chaos trade: will energy spike by July 31? — XOP direction. Regime collapse = supply shock = energy UP.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June?
33%
Hormuz proxy: will oil and energy decouple by June 30? — USO/XLE convergence. Normalization = DISAGREE.
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
70%
Bonds after FOMC — TLT direction at June 17 block. No cuts = TLT DOWN. Math. No committee.
Will the US invade Iran before 2027?
22%
Iran invasion trade: will energy enter MARKUP by Dec 31? — XLE regime. Invasion = crude spike = MARKUP.
Polymarket resolves these via UMA oracle + human dispute committee. Oracle votes can be coordinated. Disputes run for days. Markovian resolves at target block height from chain state. Math. Done.
THREE PLATFORMS. THREE FAILURE MODES.
Every existing prediction market has a single point of failure at resolution.
POLYMARKET
$1B+ total volume
The dominant platform. Real money. Real liquidity. Real problem.
FAILURE MODE
Oracle manipulation. Markets resolve via UMA protocol and Chainlink. Oracle votes can be coordinated. Human dispute windows run days to weeks. US users are geo-blocked. Resolution has been contested publicly. The oracle is the product, and the oracle can be corrupted.
UMA + Chainlink
settlement layer
Centralized
dispute resolution
Geo-blocked
US users excluded
KALSHI
CFTC-regulated DCM
Founded at MIT. Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, both MIT CS and ML backgrounds. Won the CFTC lawsuit in 2024 to offer election markets. Legitimate. Regulated. Centralized.
FAILURE MODE
Human resolution committee. Every market outcome is reviewed by a panel. Slow. Can be appealed. No permissionless market creation, Kalshi curates every question. Centralized custody, they hold your money. The MIT ML is in the pricing engine, not the settlement. Settlement is a human committee with a phone number.
Human panel
resolution method
Curated only
no permissionless mkts
Custodial
they hold your funds
MANIFOLD
Play money only
Built by ex-Google engineers. Strong forecasting community. EA and rationalist adjacent. Thousands of markets on everything. No oracle problem because there is no financial settlement.
FAILURE MODE
Mana is not money. The market creator also resolves the market. That is not a prediction market, that is a poll with a conflict of interest baked in. No skin in the game means prices do not reflect true beliefs, they reflect community sentiment. Entertainment, not intelligence. The signal is noise the moment there is no financial consequence for being wrong.
Play money
no real settlement
Creator resolves
conflict of interest
No oracle
no settlement either
Markovian has no oracle. No committee. No custodian. The chain settles at target block height. The math is public. The output is deterministic. There is no one to call.
FREE KOVS
Claim 500,000 Kovs to start staking.
One claim per address. Enough to stake 5 markets at minimum. No mining required.
BUY WITH BTC
1 MKV = 100,000 sats. Minimum: 10,000 sats.
Send BTC to the deposit address below. After sending, open your wallet's send history and copy the Transaction ID. Paste it here to receive Kovs instantly after one confirmation.
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